Half the battle: Can Metcalf break Dally M leader's curse?

If Luke Metcalf is to go on and become just the second Warrior to claim the Dally M Medal, he will need to do what no player has done since 2017, when Storm great Cameron Smith turned his halfway lead into a runaway triumph.

With Dally M voting going behind closed doors after Round 12, Metcalf leads the way on 31 votes, two clear of Sharks fullback Will Kennedy and three in front of 2019 winner James Tedesco, who is enjoying another stellar season after finishing second to Jahrome Hughes in 2024.

Should Metcalf go on to win he would emulate the deeds of current teammate and club legend Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who took home the top prize in 2018 and was honoured by an impromptu haka performed by fellow Kiwis Issac Luke, Jazz Tevaga, Jordan Rapana and Jamayne Isaako.

If Kennedy claims the top gong he would become the fifth Cronulla player to achieve the feat, following in the footsteps of Steve Rogers (1981), Gavin Miller (1988-89), Preston Campbell (2001) and Nicho Hynes (2022).

Smith took home the game’s most coveted individual award twice, in 2006 and 2017, the second of those coming after he led the count on 17 votes at halfway from Paul Gallen (14), who went to finish fourth, and Paul Vaughan (14), who finished 18th.

• Full Round 12 votes and Dally M leaderboard

In the ensuing seven years, no player has managed to hang on and win the medal after leading when votes went behind closed doors, including Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards last year. Edwards finished the count in eighth place on 34 votes after sitting on top with 31 votes after Round 12.

Remarkably, Hughes came from 16th place at the midway point on 16 votes to charge home and beat Tedesco by a single vote in a nailbiting finish.

Another man who produced a storming finish to claim the top honours was Manly’s Tom Trbojevic in 2021, receiving maximum votes in six of his eight matches in the second half of the season.

After sitting on top when votes went secret, Panthers superstar Nathan Cleary finished second, five points shy of Turbo, and was left to rue the five matches he missed due to a shoulder injury after Origin Two.

Back in 2018, James Maloney led the Dally M field after 12 rounds but failed to poll a vote for the rest of the season and finished equal 12th behind Tuivasa-Sheck.

RTS remains the only Warrior to claim the Dally M, coming home from sixth spot after 12 rounds to beat Ponga by two votes with Luke Brooks third and Val Holmes fourth.

Among those looking to make history by becoming their club's first Dally M winner are the Dolphins' gun No.7 Isaiya Katoa and Wests Tigers prop Terrell May.

Katoa has racked up 23 votes across the opening 12 rounds on the back of 10 try assists and eight line break assists while May is averaging 174 metres per game in his first season at Concord.

May sits fourth on the leaderboard on 27 votes as the weekly Dally M votes and leaderboard go ‘behind closed doors’ for the remainder of the regular season with anticipation building towards the announcement of the winner at the Dally M Awards in Grand Final week.

Halfway home

How the Round 12 Dally M leaders have fared since 2016

2024

1. 31 points – Dylan Edwards (Panthers)
2. 30 points – Nicho Hynes (Sharks)
3. 27 points – Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles)

Edwards played only six games after Round 12, eventually polling 34 votes to finish eighth in Dally M voting. Hynes polled only three more votes in the second half of the season as Storm halfback Jahrome Hughes came from clouds to poll 62 votes and win the game's most prestigious individual honour.

2023

1. 30 points – Payne Haas (Broncos)
2. 27 points – Nathan Cleary (Panthers)
3. 25 points – Harry Grant (Storm)

Haas went on to finish eighth with 42 votes behind winner Kalyn Ponga, who came from tied for 59th on six points after 12 rounds to claim the top gong.

2022

1. 19 points – Ben Hunt (Dragons)
2. 17 points – Isaah Yeo (Panthers)
3. 16 points – Nicho Hynes (Sharks)

Ben Hunt finished third on 32 points with James Tedesco second on 33 and Nicho Hynes claiming the medal with 38 points.

2021

1. 21 points – Nathan Cleary (Panthers)
2. 17 points – Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors)
3. 16 points – James Fisher-Harris (Panthers)

Nathan Cleary would go on to finish second on 30 points behind Tom Trbojevic (35) who received maximum votes in six of his eight games in the second half of the season. 

2020

1. 13 points – Harry Grant (Wests Tigers)
2. 12 points – Cameron Smith (Storm), Clint Gutherson (Eels)
3. 11 points – Jason Taumalolo (Cowboys), Shaun Johnson (Sharks), Nathan Cleary (Panthers)

Canberra's Jack Wighton turned at the halfway mark on 10 points and went on to win the Dally M Medal while Harry Grant finished in equal 11th on 15 points and took home Rookie of the Year honours.

2019

1. 15 points – Mitchell Pearce (Knights)
2. 14 points – Cameron Munster (Storm)
3. 14 points – Damien Cook (Rabbitohs)

Pearce would poll just four votes in the second half of the season to finish equal 10th on 18 votes. Roosters star James Tedesco had 12 points after 12 rounds and went on to win with 34 votes.

2018

1. 17 points – James Maloney (Panthers)
2. 16 points – Andrew Fifita (Sharks)
3. 16 points – Kalyn Ponga (Knights)
4. 16 points – Luke Brooks (Wests Tigers)

James Maloney played eight games after Round 12 and the Panthers won five of those but he failed to gather any more votes while Roger Tuivasa-Sheck won the Dally M with 29 votes from Ponga on 27 and Brooks on 26.

2017

1. 17 points – Cameron Smith (Storm)
2. 14 points – Paul Gallen (Sharks)
3. 14 points – Paul Vaughan (Dragons)

Cameron Smith defies the trend by going on to win the 2017 Dally M Medal after leading at Round 12. The Storm skipper polled 33 votes to beat Cowboy Michael Morgan (25) while Gallen would go on to finish fourth on 22 points after sitting second when voting went silent.